Waves and Cycles 2

Neil Lund

2024-11-14

Question

  • Why does contention spread?

Thresholds and cascades

Assume that:

  • Everyone has a minimal level of safety that they want to have before they’ll join a protest. A “threshold to revolt”

  • Every additional participant in a protest makes the event safer. The expectation that others are unhappy can be enough to tip a huge segment of the population to participate.

. . .

Thresholds and cascades

Thresholds and cascades might help explain events like the overthrow of the German Democratic Republic:

  • Widespread discontent but no legal outlet for voicing it (vast network of informants and a single-party state)

  • Initial evidence of discontent: mass emigration in 1989

  • Weekly “peace prayer” at a church in Leipzig began gradually morphed in to a small-scale protest.

Thresholds and cascades

  • An event on October 9, 1989 drew about 60,000. Stasi officers stood down rather than shoot peaceful protesters.

  • The October 9th event signaled both higher discontent and lower risks. So protests quickly spread to other cities and drew hundreds of thousands per week.

  • Within one month, the Berlin Wall came down and citizens were free to emigrate.

Focal Points

Spontaneous coordination sometimes happens without the need for direct communication.

Example:

Choose a number. You “win” if everyone chooses the same one:

7 100 13 261 99 555

Focal Points

The concept of a focal point may help explain seemingly spontaneous mass uprisings. If my goal is to only protest when other people are likely to show up, I might choose:

  • After Monday services at a church with a lot of liberal congregants

  • On the anniversary of some dramatic event (Tiananmen Square)

  • After a high-profile news event like the collapse of a regime elsewhere, or a tragedy or grievance (shooting of Mike Brown, or Bouazizi’s self-immolation)

Note that these events don’t solve collective action problems on their own, but they help to explain why events might happen at the same time.

And they require some shared understanding of the world - so focal points may be less effective across generations or cultures.

Focal Points

Carter, Erin Baggott, and Brett L. Carter. “Focal Moments and Protests in Autocracies: How Pro-Democracy Anniversaries Shape Dissent in China.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64.10 (2020): 1796-1827.

Carter, Erin Baggott, and Brett L. Carter. “Focal Moments and Protests in Autocracies: How Pro-Democracy Anniversaries Shape Dissent in China.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64.10 (2020): 1796-1827.

International Support and Coordination

  • Regional waves like the Arab Spring may be better understood as the result of changes in a shared international opportunity structure

  • 6,000+ International NGOs founded since the end of WWII along with some emergent norms in favor of universal human rights.

  • Transnational Advocacy Networks link countries and the International POS

Keck, Margaret E., and Kathryn A. Sikkink. Activists beyond borders: Advocacy networks in international politics. Cornell University Press, 2014.

Boomerangs

Boomerangs happen when:

  • Domestic political opportunity structures are closed

  • But international opportunity structures are receptive to new claims

  • Domestic actors “venue-shop” by linking with domestic actors in other states who then make appeals on their behalf.

Boomerangs

  • Augusto Pinochet rules Chile as a military dictator from 1973 to 1988, but leaves office as “Senator for life” with guaranteed protection from prosecution.

  • In September 1998, Pinochet travels to London for back surgery

  • On October 1998 Spanish magistrate Baltasar Garzón issues a warrant for Pinochet’s arrest for crimes of terrorism, torture, and genocide.

    • Possible because Spanish National Audience Courts can take cases from Spanish citizens and are willing to hear human rights claims

Boomerangs

  • British Gov’t opposes prosecution. Pinochet is placed under house arrest.

  • While never actually prosecuted, the events provide considerable cover for Chileans to prosecute other participants in atrocities.

Boomerangs in the Arab Spring

Western INGOs played a limited role in the Arab Spring, but Regional NGOs like the Arab League and GCC were a key source of legitimization for activists and (in Libya) for western military interventions

Spurious Correlations

Maybe seemingly correlated events are actually just independent:

  • Post WWII anti-imperialist conflicts coincided with weakness of European empires

  • The post-Soviet wave coincided with the collapse of the USSR

  • Arab Spring happens amid a global recession and regional backlash against the war on terror

The Internet and Social Media

Tunisian and Egyptian activists, in particular, made regular use of social media during the Arab Spring. So did social media outlets play a causal role?

The Internet and Social Media

Tunisian and Egyptian activists, in particular, made regular use of social media during the Arab Spring. So did social media outlets play a causal role?

  • Reasons for skepticism

    • Much lower internet access in Syria and Libya. Access is also positively correlated with repression there

    • Social media may discourage high-risk activism if it has a cathartic effect

    • Plenty of examples of waves prior to social media

The Internet and Social Media

Tunisian and Egyptian activists, in particular, made regular use of social media during the Arab Spring. So did social media outlets play a causal role?

  • Reasons for support:

    • Information cascades, focal points, and boomerang effects are all facilitated by social media use

    • “Weak ties” are good at spreading information